Wednesday September 2nd 2026
West Lothian Council is forecasting a significant surplus of school places over the next decade.
Written by Local Democracy Reporter, Stuart Sommerville
West Lothian schools will have a sea of empty desks in ten years as school rolls plummet.
It is a pattern which will be repeated across Scotland as birth rates fall nationally.
In practical terms, in the face of ever growing financial demands for efficiencies, it will mean difficult political decisions on which schools should stay open and which will see the bell silenced forever.
A report accepted by the Education Executive in Livingston today (Tuesday) heard that even planning for 900 new homes a year in the county playgrounds and corridors across the school estate in West Lothian will be a lot quieter.
In a report to councillors Andrew Cotton, Senior Education Planning Officer, said: “The School Roll Forecasts will form an important part of this review with the 900 house scenario showing clearly that in 10 years time there is forecast to be a total primary capacity of 21,948 places with less than 14,000 children – an excess capacity of more than 8,000 spaces.
“In the Secondary estate meanwhile there are 14,960 spaces with 12,500 children forecast, an excess capacity of 2,500 spaces.”
Taking Linlithgow as an example, its feeder primaries have already seen a significant drop in new intake this year compared to the P7 cohort which left in June. Linlithgow’s feeder primaries had 202 p7 pupils in 2025, but only 152 new P1 starts in August.
That’s a 25% drop.
The total 2026/27 primary school roll for Linlithgow Academy’s feeder primaries is 1,099. By 2035/36 it is predicted to have dropped by almost 500, to 669.
Councillor Sally Pattle said: “How can we be sure these forecasts are accurate?”
“The numbers all seem to be dropping alarmingly. How can we keep these schools open in the long term?
Greg Welsh, depute chief executive for educations services said the gathering of information on expected school numbers “was a work in progress.”
Councillors also asked what effect the falling numbers would have in catchment areas and placing requests.
At the moment some secondary schools, such at James Young HS in Livingston have a majority of pupils who live outwith the catchment area and attend after a placing request.
The report said: “School Roll Forecasting inevitably involves some elements of uncertainty. West Lothian Council mitigates these risks by using a third-party demographic expert work on our school roll forecasting in combination with our local expertise.
“Forecasts reflect current and historic demographic trends but change over time as the effect of events including the Credit Crunch, Brexit and Covid 19 are reflected in both development trends and choices by local parents.
“Other council areas have had significant issues with ensuring sufficient school capacity to meet development demand due to inaccurate calculations.
“These forecasts have been thoroughly reviewed to ensure that they accurately reflect the current situation in West Lothian and will continue to be updated annually to ensure that future demographic trends are reflected accurately in the forecasts.”
The council decided in its budget earlier this year to undertake the demographic review of long term trends in West Lothian including an ageing population and falling numbers of school age children, even as the overall population of the country grows.
At the other end of the age range West Lothian will have a significantly older population than other parts of Scotland by the mid 2030s.
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